Posted To Straight Shootin
The product of baseball, at least at the major league level, has been on the decline for years. The season is too long, the games are too long, the market is out of control…and the cloud of the infamous “Steroid Era” continues to cast a dark shadow over a game that was once considered America’s favorite pastime.
Yet we still watch. We watch because, juiced or not, professional baseball players can do amazing things. A seasoned pitcher can deliver a 95-MPH fastball with pinpoint precision. A slugger with incredible plate discipline and hand-eye coordination can swat that same fastball over 400 feet with a well-timed swing.
But as fans, and consumers…I contend that we’ve become far too tolerant.
For one thing, Major League Baseball no longer functions as a single entity. Instead, inflated salaries and disproportionate revenues have team owners stuck in survival mode. There is no real financial incentive to win. If a team like Kansas City or Minnesota can consistently turn profits while putting a mediocre team on the field, why wouldn’t they? Aside from the industry giants (New York, Boston), it is virtually impossible to compete in free agency without serious financial risk. This anomaly seems to outrage fans, but it doesn’t stop them from coming out to the ballpark.
The result of the chaos is a very predictable environment for baseball. It’s the reason that a dullard like me was able to pick 5 of 6 division winners last year. (And if the Cardinals would have had any luck in the health department, it very well could have been 6 of 6.)
Granted, there were a few surprises. The Diamondbacks, for instance, defied the odds of statistical probability to win the NL West. However, you could argue that their title had more to do with the inadequacies of the division. Most of the other pennant races were nothing more than two-team contests.
And wouldn’t you know it, one of the league’s premier spenders (Boston) finished on top.
With that said, I suppose it’s time to put my money ($2) where my mouth is. Here’s how I see the pennant races shaping out in 2008:
AL East
Don’t kid yourself into thinking this is anything more than a two-horse race. The last time someone besides the Yankees or Crimson Hosers won the division was in 1997.
Boston likely has the edge at this point, given their strong rotation. But with Curt Schilling out, Boston could be one untimely injury away from being grounded. However, GM Theo Epstein made some low-key moves in order to keep this World Series championship team intact. Most notably, World Series MVP Mike Lowell was re-signed out of free agency.
Even though he boasted a career high .332 BA, David Ortiz watched his power numbers dip slightly with his lowest home run output since 2003. He battled through nagging ailments all season, and one wonders how long his gravitationally-challenged body can hang on.
Speaking of decline, Manny Ramirez may be in the same boat as Ortiz. For the first time since 1997, Manny failed to reach his benchmark of 30 HR and 100 RBI.
At best, Ramirez and Ortiz form the best power-hitting duo in the game. But Father Time has a fastball from hell…
Keeping up with the Steins…
As expected, the Yankees led the league in runs scored last year…despite their overpriced collection of dead weight (see Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi). And in typical fashion, it was their pitching staff (combined 4.49 ERA) that prevented a serious run at a title.
Even though they struck out in the Johan Santana sweepstakes, the pitching staff figures to be improved…slightly. Youngsters like Ian Kennedy and Phil Hughes should provide some depth in the rotation, a nice compliment to veterans Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina. Chien-Ming Wang has been steady with 19 wins in each of the past 2 seasons.
When all is said and done, this team has the stuff to be a regular season juggernaut. But without a legitimate ace on the staff, they could be destined for another post-season letdown…especially if Alex Rodriguez continues to struggle in October.
Offensively, A-Rod and Jeter should put up the usual solid numbers. Robinson Cano has quietly been one of the most productive 2nd basemen in the league, and he can probably be penciled in for another .300 season with 20 or so homers. Beyond that, there are quite a few question marks. Abreu had a sub-par season in 2007, Johnny Damon is no longer a legitimate leadoff hitter, and Matsui and Posada aren’t exactly spring chickens. I also get the feeling that Jason Giambi is one major injury away from joining Jose Canseco on a book-signing tour.
The race could go either way, but I’ll take the Yankees. Especially knowing that they are always a front-runner to fix any glaring needs with a mid-season blockbuster deal.
AL Central
What do you know? It’s another 2-team race.
The Tigers were probably the busiest team in the off-season, adding Miguel Cabrera and Edgar Renteria to their already solid lineup. There still might be some holes in the pitching staff, primarily in the bullpen…but they could very well have surpassed New York as the best offensive lineup in baseball.
The Indians are poised for another run, but the rotation still looks awfully thin behind Sabathia and Fausto Carmona. And don’t forget how fortunate Joe “Captain Cardiac” Borowski was to rack up 45 saves despite an eye-popping 5.07 ERA.
Detroit should take the division by at least a handful of games.
AL West
For some reason, I can’t stand this division. It almost always seems to be the same. If the A’s are in rebuilding mode, and they are, then the Angels usually have the edge. The Mariners are always a couple of players away from contending. The Rangers would need an overhauled pitching staff and a defibrillator to make a serious run.
As usual, I have to go with the Anaheim/Orange County/Los Angeles Whatever Angels. They are the most balanced team in the division.
NL East
It’s incredible to think that one player could change the complexion of the entire division, but that could very well be the case here. Johan Santana joins a rotation that was solid in 2007, even though Pedro Martinez was out most of the season. If John Maine and Oliver Perez can duplicate their efforts from last season, the Mets could erase the painful memories of that untimely late-season collapse.
But don’t forget everything the Phillies had to overcome last year. Countless injuries (including DL time for Chase Utley and Ryan Howard), an incredibly depleted pitching staff, and a terrible start to the season created a severe uphill climb for Charlie Manuel’s squad. If Brett Myers can make a successful return to the rotation, the fightin’ Phils might just have a chance to repeat as division champs.
Atlanta could be the forgotten team in this race, but they should be a factor. In 2007, they had the best pitching staff in the East (4.11 ERA). They also put up better offensive numbers than the Mets, thanks in part to solid production (.337 BA, 29 HR) from injury-prone Chipper Jones.
I predict a close race, with the Mets finishing on top.
NL Central
It didn’t seem that anybody wanted to take charge of this division last year. The Cubs won by default, needing just 85 victories (league low for division winners) to edge out the Brew Crew. Milwaukee had the offense, and Chicago had the pitching…plain and simple.
With a healthy Chris Carpenter, the Cardinals might have a chance. However, he will begin the season on the shelf…and isn’t likely to be at 100% until 2009. If at all.
So once again, it will probably be another 2-team race (is this theme starting to sound familiar?). The Brewers’ season depends on the health of Ben Sheets and Eric Gagne. In other words, advantage Cubbies.
NL West
4 teams from the division finished over .500 last year, with the D-Backs emerging by the narrowest of margins. And there is no reason to believe that these same 4 teams won’t be battling it out again this September.
Though they are perceived as an aging veteran team, the Dodgers are making a leap into the fountain of youth. Young hitters like Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp, and James Loney should give the offense a huge boost. The newest import, Hideki Kuroda, will provide some additional punch to an already stellar pitching staff.
The Rockies have a loaded lineup, but the pitching staff could be the difference for them. They have two talented young hurlers (Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales) that could make this team virtually unstoppable.
The Padres still don’t have nearly enough offense or youth. The D-Backs had the lowest batting average in the National League last year, and will have a difficult time repeating as division champs with LA and Colorado in the way.
All things considered, I expect the Rockies to take another step forward and capture the division title.
3rd Strike
Baseball has seen its share of problems, from the labor strike of 1994 to the immortal stench of the “Steroid Era”. And who could forget John Rocker? But now America’s pastime is facing a threat even more serious – the inability to provide fans with a quality product.
Maybe it’s time for us to demand just a little bit more from Major League Baseball. Whaddya say?